Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS61 KCAR 302121
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
521 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move into the region this afternoon from the
southwest and progress northeast into tonight. Low pressure
will track northwest of the area Monday. High pressure will
build toward the region Tuesday, then cross the region
Wednesday. A warm front will lift across Downeast areas
Thursday. A cold front will then cross the region Thursday night
into Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Leading edge of light snow has reached Millinocket per latest
observations. The light snow will overspread the entire area by
early this evening. Towards Bangor and Downeast, main p-types
are sleet and freezing rain, with some plain rain mixing in at
the coast. As warm air continues to work in aloft, p-type will
trend towards freezing rain in the Bangor region this evening,
spreading northward to the Central Highlands. P-type will be all
plain rain at the coast by this evening with surface
temperatures rising above freezing.

As the warm front moves through, plain rain will reach the
Bangor region and Interior Downeast after midnight tonight.
Northern Aroostook will see snow change to sleet and then
freezing rain late tonight. Snow totals there will generally be
1 to 2 inches, with somewhat higher amounts possible in the
North Woods. Cold air damming will result in freezing rain
hanging on in the Crown of Maine and the colder valleys of the
Central Highlands into Monday morning. Other areas will see
entirely plain rain by that time. All areas will switch to plain
rain no later than midday Monday. Total ice accumulation will
generally be one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch from the
Central Highlands northward, and one-tenth of an inch or less
near Bangor and Downeast.

Heavy rainfall is not expected with this system. However, patchy
fog is likely to develop thanks to continued onshore flow and
warm air advection aloft. High temperatures on Monday will be in
the mid to upper 40s east, and lower 50s west. Some gusty
southerly winds are possible Monday afternoon near the coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure lifts northeast across Quebec province toward
Labrador Monday night drawing a cold front across the forecast
area. Expect rain in advance of the cold front early Monday
night. Precipitation then tapers to showers before ending in the
wake of the front across northern areas overnight leaving
mostly cloudy skies. Rain tapers to showers Downeast in the wake
of the front. The cold front exits across the Maritimes
Tuesday. Dependent on the timing of the exiting front, could
still have a chance of rain showers Downeast early Tuesday.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies early then partly sunny.
High pressure begins to build across the region Tuesday night
with mostly clear skies. High pressure crosses the region
Wednesday while low pressure approaching the Great Lakes draws a
warm front toward western New England. Expect mostly sunny
skies early Wednesday, with clouds then starting to increase
during the afternoon. Expect slightly below normal level
temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The warm front lifts toward the region Wednesday night. Overrunning
precipitation will expand across the region in advance of the
warm front. After early lows, expect warming temperatures
later Wednesday night. Retreating high pressure will help leave
low level cold air across the region Wednesday night, while
temperatures aloft warm. Based on critical thicknesses, expect
precipitation will start in the form of snow across the forecast
area. With warming temperatures aloft, expect precipitation
will then transition to a wintry mix late across central and
Downeast portions of the forecast area. Across northern areas,
snow could begin to transition to a wintry mix late. However,
uncertainty still exists regarding how rapidly the transition
from snow to a wintry mix occurs across the forecast area. The
warm front will partially lift across the region Thursday, with
a cold front then crossing the region Thursday night. The wintry
mix will eventually transition to rain, from south to north,
across the entire region Thursday. Precipitation should then
taper to showers before ending later Thursday night. A possible
upper level disturbance and surface trof could bring a chance of
rain/snow showers to mostly the north and mountains Friday.
Otherwise, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies north with
partly sunny skies Downeast Friday. Clouds should then begin to
decrease Friday night with building high pressure. High pressure
should bring partly cloudy skies Saturday. Low pressure could
then bring a chance of precipitation Sunday, though
precipitation timing/amounts/types remain uncertain. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Thursday/Saturday/Sunday. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Aroostook Terminals...VFR through 21z. Trending to MVFR then
IFR/LIFR with -SN through 01z. -SN changes to -PL then -FZRA
around 06z-09z. Any -FZRA changes to -RA by 15z Monday.
Continued IFR/LIFR with -RA and BCFG through Monday. LLWS likely
after 13z Monday. SE winds around 5kts tonight. S winds 5-15
kts, gusting to 20kts Monday.

BGR & Downeast Terminals...Mainly IFR/LIFR through tonight and
through Monday. -PL and -FZRA changing to -RA by 04z. BCFG after
09z. LLWS likely after 13z. SE winds 5-10 kts tonight. S winds
10-5 kts, gusting to 25 kts Monday.

SHORT TERM:

Monday night...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR late. Rain tapering to
rain showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
west/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, then VFR. A chance of rain showers early
Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15
knots Tuesday night. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.

Wednesday night...VFR early. IFR/LIFR late. Snow late north. Snow
transitioning to a wintry mix central and Downeast areas. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 20 knots.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR. A wintry mix changing to rain from south to
north. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots,
becoming south/southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR early, then MVFR/IFR. Rain tapering to
showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
west/northwest.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers, mostly north.
West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through early this evening. Wind gusts approach SCA
levels on the outer waters later tonight. Southerly winds
increase to Gale force on the outer waters late morning to
midday Monday, and to SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters.
Hence, a Gale Warning for the outer waters and an SCA for the
intra-coastal waters will go into effect beginning late Monday
morning. Seas build to 7 to 10 feet on the outer waters Monday
afternoon. Rain and fog will reduce visibility on the waters
tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible early Monday night.
Otherwise, small craft advisory conditions later Monday night
into Wednesday. Rain with patchy fog Monday night. A chance of
showers early Tuesday.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few ice jams remain locked in place across northern Maine but
are not impacting any roads or structures. Any impacts are low
lying areas near the river banks with minimal impacts. River ice
is leading to a localized limited risk for ice jam flooding
over the next week as thermal decay of the ice is expected. Some
river gauges showing influence from building frazil ice due to recent
cold temperatures but no actual impacts expected.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver from
Washburn at the Aroostook River bend near Castle Hill and Wade.
Water levels have come down and will continue to fall over the
next couple days.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver of Fort
Fairfield near the Fort Fairfield and Caribou town line. Water
levels have fallen over the last couple days and will continue
to fall as ice decays. Minor shifts could cause additional low
lying flooding but impacts will be minimal.

A six mile jam remains around Saint Francis, with no flooding at
this time. Water levels continue to subside in this area.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Monday for MEZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Monday for MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for MEZ015-016-
     029-031.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night
     for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/Norcross
Marine...Clark/Norcross
Hydrology...LF