Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS61 KCAR 220420
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1120 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west Sunday into Sunday
night and crest over the area Monday. A clipper low will
approach Monday night and track south of the area Tuesday. High
pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday into late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:20 PM Update...The sky is partly to mostly cloudy with a
brisk northwesterly wind. Only minor change was to upgrade snow
showers to scattered over Southeastern Aroostook County where
some plumes of snow showers are showing up on radar. These
should dissipate later tonight as high pressure slowly presses
in.

Previous Discussion:
Low pressure continues to track into the Maritimes tonight and
continues to deepen. Upper level trof at 500mb will hang back
over the area tonight. Boundary layer is gradually drying out
and snow showers will slowly come to an end this evening. A
1035mb surface high pressure is drifting east out of Ontario
into Quebec and the tightening pressure gradient will keep NW
winds 10-20mph tonight with some areas seeing gusts to 30mph at
times. The snow is very light and fluffy and will blow around at
times especially in the open fields of Aroostook, N. Penobscot
and Washington counties but any areas may see blowing and
drifting snow. No major impacts expected but brief reduced
visibility at night may occur and some drifting of snow onto
cold roads may cause them to get covered up. Tonight, features a
strong dome of cold air working in with 925mb temps falling to
around -20C. A bunch of clouds remain and with the winds sirring
it will become chilly tonight. Air temperatures will fall back
into the 0-5F range across the North with a few below zero
readings in the North Woods. Lows from 5-10F expected in the
Central Highlands, Bangor region and Downeast coast. Across the
North and Moosehead Region breezy winds will cause Wind Chills
to drop to between -10F and -15F with perhaps a few -20s in the
far North Woods. Across the Bangor region and Downeast Wind
Chills as low as -10F possible but most as low as -5F.

Tomorrow, the 1035mb high slowly drifts south out of Quebec into
eastern New York state. This will keep the NW winds moving but
the pressure gradient weakens through the afternoon so gusts
generally remain less than 20mph. However, cold air will be in
place so things will be very chilly tomorrow. Highs will top out
in the 8-13F range across the North, 12-16F range in the Central
Highlands and 15-19F for the Downeast coast. Wind Chills will be
single digits below zero for the Central Highlands northward to
the St. John Valley with 0-5F wind chills for the Downeast and
Bangor area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move closer to the region Sunday night. This
will allow for clearing skies and diminishing winds. Some
uncertainty as to exactly how quickly winds die off. However,
enough confidence to go colder than NBM guidance, especially in
colder valleys. Many locations will see low temperatures in the
single digits below zero. Not out of the question that some of
the coldest spots in the North Woods see lows below -10F. The
normally warmer spots will see lows in the single digits above
zero. High pressure will bring a dry and cold day Monday, with
highs in the teens for most.

Attention then turns to a clipper low that is forecast to pass
south of the area later Monday night into Tuesday. 12z guidance
is in fairly good agreement on a light snowfall across the
region. At this time, the highest probability for a few inches
looks to be in the Bangor region and Downeast. However, the
shortwave that will produce this clipper low is still over the
Pacific, where sampling is limited. Thus, some adjustments are
still possible with future updates once the shortwave arrives
onshore in North America. High temperatures on Tuesday will
mostly be in the 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There may still be some leftover light snow or snow showers into
Tuesday night, mainly Bangor and Downeast. This leftover snow
is expected to end before sunrise Christmas morning. Christmas
Day will be dry along with seasonably cold temperatures. A
strong high pressure system to the north of the area will remain
in control through the end of the week. This will result in dry
conditions. As the temperatures column slowly warms through the
week, temperatures will gradually moderate through the end of
the week. At this time, high temperatures Saturday are forecast
to remain near or below freezing in the North, and in the 30s
for Bangor and Downeast. Low temperatures will be well below
freezing through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs may linger over northern terminals over the
next few hours, then will lift towards VFR by midnight tonight.
Downeast terminals should remain VFR through this time. NW
winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR. NW wind 10 to 15 kts early, becoming calm.

Monday...VFR. Light NW to W wind becoming S.

Monday night...VFR dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR south with
-SN. S wind becoming E around 10 kts.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...MVFR/IFR south and MVFR north with -SN
becoming VFR across the area by late Tuesday night. Light N
wind.

Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory in effect through 4pm EST
Sunday in the Intra-Coastal Waters for NW winds 10-20kt with
gusts up to 30kt and seas 2-4ft. Small Craft Advisory in effect
through 10pm EST Sunday for NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to
30kt and seas 3-6ft. Snow showers will gradually end this
evening but light freezing spray is likely tonight through
Sunday. Sea surface temperatures are running 42-45F from the
Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Penobscot & Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM:
Winds and seas will gradually subside below Small Craft Advisory
during Sunday night as high pressure builds in. Conditions
remain at sub-SCA levels for Monday through the day Tuesday.
Winds and seas may approach SCA criteria Tuesday night into
early Wednesday on the outer waters as a clipper low passes
through. Seas and winds subside below SCA levels by
Wednesday1011 PM Update: An inverted trough behind the departing
surface low pressure system has reinvigorated snow shower plumes
off the St Lawrence north of the forecast area, leading to
another batch of light snow showers streaming into the eastern
half of the state tonight. Additionally, gusty winds continue to
lead to drifting snow throughout the forecast area.afternoon
and remain there through the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Sinko/MCB
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...AStrauser/Sinko/Clark
Marine...AStrauser/Sinko/Clark