Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KCAR 150008
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
708 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the Maritimes will impact the region Friday
into the weekend. Another low will approach Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6pm Update (MS): Clear skies and light winds remain in place
across the entire area tonight, with cloud cover very slowly
building westward over far southeastern New Brunswick. Showers
are noted in observations across the Magdalen Islands and
isolated across Prince Edward Island. CASCM and adjacent
Canadian radars are overshooting this precipitation. In any
case, the slow progression of cloud cover and precipitation
allowed the removal of any PoPs during the first period, as well
as reductions in forecast cloud cover for the remainder of the
night. Very dry air may further delay precipitation on Friday,
especially across western and central portions of the forecast
area. 0z guidance as compared to observational trends in
satellite, radar, and surface METARs will determine if some of
the Winter Weather Advisory zones may need to be dropped with
subsequent updates.

Previous Discussion:
The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 to 11 AM
Friday. High pressure will retreat westward tonight through
Friday, while low pressure retrogades toward the Maritimes from
the open Atlantic. High pressure will keep mostly clear skies
across the region early tonight. Clouds will then expand
westward across New Brunswick into eastern portions of the
forecast area late tonight. Precipitation will also expand back
toward the Maine/New Brunswick border very late tonight. Warmer
air aloft from the Maritimes will expand across the region
overnight. At the surface, favorable radiational cooling
conditions will allow low levels to cool rapidly before clouds
begin to increase late tonight. Based on the thermal profile,
expect precipitation in the form of a light wintry mix across
eastern portions of the forecast area late tonight. However,
models are still trending slower with the arrival time of
precipitation which will be fighting the very dry air with
retreating high pressure. Thus, have delayed the onset time of
the Winter Weather Advisory. Any ice accumulations will be
light, ranging from a trace possibly up to a tenth of an inch.
This has also led to increased uncertainty regarding how
quickly, along with the extent to which, precipitation expands
westward across the remainder of the forecast area.
Precipitation will transition to rain through Friday morning
into the afternoon with warmer air wrapping back across the
forecast area from the Maritimes. Low temperatures tonight will
occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly warm
late. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s
across western areas, with mid 20s across eastern areas. High
temperatures Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s across
much of the forecast area, with around 40 to the lower 40s along
the Downeast coast and southwest corner of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation is expected to gradually retreat to the east
Friday night and Saturday. As the low moves eastward, some
colder air will filter back in aloft and the precip will become
more showery in nature. By this time, temperatures will have
warmed above freezing across the forecast area, so freezing rain
will no longer be a concern. Northwest flow will bring some
colder air on the backside, but by the time the colder
temperatures have filtered into the mountains, precipitation
will have all but ceased. Therefore, decided to keep surface
temperatures above freezing and limit any freezing rain across
the North Woods Saturday morning. As for amounts, little to no
QPF is expected at this point so not expecting these showers to
have much of an impact. Northwesterly winds on the backside of
this low will be gusty; not advisory level but have increased
the forecast from NBM base winds since studies indicate the
current blend is consistently low on wind speeds with windier
conditions.

By Sunday, upper level ridging will move overhead and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. Winds will decrease as well and
overall Sunday is expected to be a pleasant day. Highs will be
in the mid-40s and lows in the upper 20s across the region, so
slightly warmer than normal although not unusual.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for precipitation comes on Monday with a weak
front expected to cross the area. Warm air advection during the
day on Monday will ensure that any precip starts out as rain,
but cooler air on the backside of the front Monday night may
bring a brief mix of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Regardless, this looks like a low QPF event so impacts will be
limited again. Weather remains quiet and dry for the remainder
of the week, with seasonable temperatures. This patch of quiet
weather will not do much to alleviate any drought concerns for
the state, however, cooler temperatures will minimize
evaporation so conditions are likely to remain status quo.
Thursday night, the potential begins for a larger, more potent
system approaching from the west. However, as is typical with
stronger systems at the end of the period, there is a large
variation in timing and development of this system. So,
confidence is increasing in a weather system for the end of next
week, but confidence in the details of that system is low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight. VFR/MVFR early Friday, then MVFR/IFR. A
light wintry mix early Friday, transitioning to rain. North
winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots late. North/northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with gusts up to 25 knots Friday. Northerly low level wind
shear develops during the early morning hours then persists
into Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night and Saturday...IFR cigs north of GNR
and HUL with tempo IFR vis in drizzle. Mostly MVFR towards BGR
and BHB due to cigs. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday night...IFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in
drizzle north of HUL and GNR, improving through the night. VFR
for BHB and BGR. Northwest winds near 10 kt.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.

Monday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs
north of HUL and GNR. Light west winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters tonight through Friday. A slight chance of rain late
tonight, then a chance of rain Friday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are expected to continue
through Saturday morning. A few gale force gusts may occur
Friday night. Winds will continue to be gusty through Sunday and
the small craft advisory may need to be extended through the
weekend. Right now, kept the forecast to minimum small craft
gusts through Sunday. Small craft winds may return Monday night
into Tuesday. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet through the period, with
highest seas further offshore.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Brennan/MStrauser/Norcross/LF
Marine...Brennan/Norcross/LF