Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

994
FXUS61 KCAR 152350
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
750 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-740PM Update...Updated aviation discussion for the 0z TAFs.
 Minor changes to PoPs based on radar. Diurnal shower activity
 should quickly decrease with sunset over the next hour or so.
 Also updated the marine forecast grids and products to reduce
 wind speeds, gusts, and wave heights based on current buoy
 observations and expected continuation of very stable
 conditions through Sunday.

- A special weather statement has been issued for cold inland water
  temperatures

- A beach hazards statement has been issued for cold ocean
 temperatures combined with seas around 5 ft.

- Added in frost to north/northwest portions of the area Sunday
  night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm air temperatures this weekend in the upper 60s to mid
70s may cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold
water temperatures.

2) Dry and breezy conditions this weekend may lead to some fire
weather concerns.

3) Thunderstorms and very warm temperatures possible Tuesday
and Wednesday.

4) Potential for frost Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm air temperatures this weekend in the upper
60s to mid 70s may cause people to underestimate the dangers of
the cold water temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A warm weekend is in store for the area with temperatures
reaching the low to mid 70s across much of the area and upper
60s along the coast. Combined with mostly sunny skies, this may
cause people out recreating to underestimate the dangers of
cold water as inland lake and river temperatures will be in the
mid 40s while the ocean will be in the low 40s. The cold water
temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in
the water. Anyone on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
accordingly if recreating this weekend and use extreme caution
to avoid this threat. Paddle smart from the start and always
wear your life jacket!


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and breezy conditions this weekend may lead
to some fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
On Saturday, RHs approach 30% over much of northern and central
Maine with wind gusts of 20-25 mph which may lead to increased
fire activity. The greatest risk is expected over eastern
Aroostook where W/SW winds will contribute to a drying,
downslope flow off the higher terrain to the west. There is
less of a risk in the Bangor and Downeast region as winds become
more southwesterly throughout the day, bringing moisture
onshore to these areas.

Early Sunday, a cold front moves through with very little
precipitation, gusty NW winds with gusts up to around 30 mph,
coupled with RHs down to around 30% over the whole area will
lead to increased fire risk again.

A third day in a row of dry conditions is expected Monday, with
RHs to around 30, but winds will be fairly light, unlike
Saturday/Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorms and very warm temperatures possible
Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A lot of uncertainty for Tuesday and Wednesday. At upper levels,
there will likely be ridging over the area. However, there is
very likely to be a strong temperature gradient over the area.
Most models have Northern and Eastern Maine near or just barely
on the warm side of the front most of the time, but a
significant minority of models bring the front south as a
backdoor cold front, with significantly cooler temperatures. The
position of this front will determine if and where there are
thunderstorms. A frontal position on the north edge of the
envelope, such as around the St John Valley, would mean
temperatures soar into the 80s areawide with a strong/severe
thunderstorm risk over the north. A frontal position on the
south edge of the envelope, over central or SW Maine, could mean
cool stable air and little if any thunderstorm threat. A general
consensus solution is for the front being over the far north
Tuesday with a storm threat over the north Tuesday, with the
front shifting south some on Wednesday with a storm threat more
over Downeast, and cooler temperatures in the north. But it`s
important to emphasize there is a ton of uncertainty. This is a
situation to watch closely because if the thunderstorm threat
transpires, storms could be strong or severe.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Potential for frost Sunday night, and again
Thursday night and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...

With the high pressure building in for Sunday night, there is
a risk of patchy frost, mainly in north/northwest portions of
the area where winds appear the lightest with the best
decoupling.

Later in the week, fairly high confidence in much cooler, drier
air moving in. This could lead to a frost threat both Thursday
night and Friday night, depending on when and if the center of
the surface high pressure moves over the area. The highest
chance of frost (about 40 percent) will be over northern and
northwest portions of the area, but we can`t rule out the
potential for frost further south toward the coast as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through Saturday...VFR. Winds light and variable tonight,
increasing to 10 to 15 kts out of the W/SW by Saturday
afternoon.

Saturday night...VFR with a 20 percent chance of MVFR at
northern terminals in light showers. VCSH southern terminals.
SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, though could be MVFR at northern terminals
(20 percent chance) before 15z. NW wind around 15 kts with
gusts 25 kts.

Sunday Night to Monday Night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kts, shifting
to the S.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Low confidence. Potential exists for
thunderstorms either day. Highly uncertain on whether it will be
VFR, MVFR, or IFR, but the greater probability of lower
conditions is at northern terminals. W winds 5-15 kts eventually
shifting to the N as early as Tuesday or as late as Wednesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas remain above SCA conditions through early Saturday morning
on the intracoastal waters and through Sunday morning on the
coastal waters. Winds below SCA criteria are expected across all
but the outermost waters, where gusts to around 25 kt are
forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

On Sunday, seas will be near or just below small craft levels.
Then improving conditions Sunday night and Monday with
conditions well below small craft on Monday. Tuesday/Wednesday,
small craft SW winds appear likely, along with seas building to
around 5 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/SM/MWS
AVIATION...TF/SM/MWS